Elections on July 28th

The board of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), Venezuela’s electoral authority, as they make the announcement on Tuesday, March 5th, 2024.

On Tuesday, the Venezuelan electoral authority, the CNE, announced that elections will take place on July 28th. The CNE board approved the electoral roadmap unanimously.

The inscription of candidates will be between March 21st and 25th, and citizens will be able to register to vote until April 16th.

The date has a symbolic significance, as it is the birthday of Hugo Chavez, Nicolas Maduro’s predecessor. The day of the announcement was also the anniversary of his passing away in 2013.

In February, a source close to the negotiations between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments said that a July date means that talks have so far failed. Otherwise, the U.S. preferred the vote to take place in October.

In that case, the announcement would have been made jointly between the Venezuelan government and the Unitary Platform, the largest opposition alliance, which is backed by the U.S.

There is reason to believe that negotiations could still progress. The July date is within the second half of the year, which was agreed in the Barbados Agreement between the government and the Unitary Platform.

One key consideration is who the electoral observers will be. So far, President Maduro has only invited missions from the United Nations and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

The Carter Center and the EU, though likely to attend, are yet to receive an invitation. They were mentioned in the Barbados Agreement, and their presence would be key for a credible vote for Western countries, which did not recognize the 2018 election.

An election that is not accepted by the U.S. government would mean that General License 44 is not renewed in April. The measure allows for the purchase of Venezuelan oil and gas, after they were sanctioned in 2019.

In turn, a breakdown of relations between the two countries would also upend migration agreements and could drive up energy prices. These are increasingly important for President Joe Biden, as he must also face the electorate in November.

Machado says there is no substitute

So far, the electoral roadmap is being set without the Unitary Platform. Its candidate, Maria Corina Machado, is banned from running for public office for fifteen years.

In a TV interview before the announcement, Machado reiterated that there will be no substitute candidate, “as that would mean saying that Maduro has won.”

The Unitary Platform will have to decide between fielding a substitute candidate or boycotting the election, as they did in 2018. The alliance could also break, with some staying on the electoral route and others abstaining.

Juan Guaido, a former leader of the opposition, said on X—formerly Twitter—that on March 21st, the day when candidates must register, supporters should accompany Machado to inscribe herself at the CNE.

Whereas Henrique Capriles, who ran against Maduro in 2013, said that “Maduro will try to beat us with division and abstention” and that all should vote for whoever becomes the unified opposition candidate.