Essequibo: Military build-up at the border?

Screenshot from the CSIS report.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies published a report on February 9th arguing that Venezuela is building up troop numbers along its border with Guyana. The report was published just days after ExxonMobil announced it would increase its drilling in contested waters; the Venezuelan Ministry of Defence said it would respond to what it said was a “provocation”.

In a White House press briefing, we heard that the U.S. government believes Venezuelan troop movements “have been of limited nature […] we see no indication that there’s about to be hostilities or that the Venezuelan military would be capable of conducting any significant military activities there.”

Back to the fundamentals

We see no evidence that there are increased numbers from the CSIS report alone, especially as they did not provide sufficient contrasting imagery. Furthermore, the capacity there is not enough to launch an offensive. It will be very difficult for the Venezuelan government to have any effective capacity in the region, given the difficult terrain and the lack of infrastructure. The area is mostly covered by dense rainforest and is without paved roads connecting the two countries.

Another key fundamental point is that Venezuela would not be interested in invading Guyana for its petroleum. The region of Zulia alone has 22 billion barrels of light and medium crudes, which is double what has been discovered in Stabroek—the offshore oil block in contested waters. A military conflict would most likely make it even harder for Venezuela to produce and export oil, which is the real problem.

What the Maduro government could try to do is pressure Guyana for a negotiated resolution over a maritime border—which does not exist between the two countries. It could also use tensions as part of negotiations with the U.S., while an actual, direct confrontation would upend them.

The Essequibo is simply not the topic of the day in Caracas in political circles. After the referendum, the Venezuelan government has kept to responding to developments from the Guyana-U.S. side, such as the new drilling or the visit by U.S. officials saying they would bolster the GDF.