Venezuela presents budget for 2025
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who also oversees the economic ministries, speaks at Venezuela’s National Assembly on 3 December 2024 to present the 2025 national budget. Source: Asamblea Nacional.
On Tuesday, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez presented a $22.7 billion national budget for 2025 at the National Assembly.
Next year’s budget would be up 11% from the $20.5 billion initially set aside for 2024. Figures are calculated at the official, central bank rate.
For comparison, the budget was just over $114 billion in 2015, as the Venezuelan economy started collapsing, with a peak-to-trough fall of 80% of its GDP. The national economy is now 29% of its size in 2012, according to the IMF.
Rodriguez also said that 77% of the budget will go to “social programmes” like education, health care and pensions.
Details of the budget are not available to the public. A summary of the bill shows that income from state oil company PDVSA will provide $10.1 billion, or 53% of the budget. This contribution will be 15% lower than the $11.9 billion for 2024.
Taxes will cover $5.25 billion or 28%, while other financing will come from other state-owned industries and debt. Last month, Maduro authorised the issuance of new local bonds and promissory notes.
At the Federal Legislative Palace, Rodriguez said that growth for the first three quarters of this year is estimated at 8.5% and that Venezuela’s economy has grown for 14 consecutive quarters.
Independent growth estimates vary. The UNDP has said that growth will be 6.1% for this year, while the IMF projects 3%. The Observatorio Venezolano de Finanzas, an NGO, says economic activity grew by 3.8% in the first three quarters.
Financing for the 2025 national budget
Revenues growing in 2024
The main source of revenues for the Venezuelan state, the production and export of oil, has grown throughout 2024. That is despite the end of the OFAC’s General License 44 and its winddown period in May. That is largely because many companies that operated under that framework applied for “specific licenses,” usually arguing that they needed to recoup debts from PDVSA.
Between January and June 2024 the SENIAT, the tax agency, collected 206% more taxes than in the same period in 2023—in dollar terms at the official exchange rate.
Combined with greater oil revenues, the Venezuelan state will have a much larger cash flow unless there are external shocks like renewed sanctions from the incoming Trump administration.
In November, oil exports continued to grow despite the looming risk of new sanctions and two severe fires in PDVSA installations. According to Reuters, Venezuela exported 974,000 barrels per day of oil, of which 613,000 bpd went to Asia and 238,000 bpd to the US. This would be the highest volume of exports since 2020.
A fire and explosion blasted out much of the Muscar gas complex in Monagas, while there was a separate accident at a coke plant in the Jose Antonio Anzoategui Petrochemical Complex.
The first incident, blamed on a terrorist attack, cut down natural gas and propane production; while the second fire has led to national diesel shortages. These fuels are important both for households and for electricity generators, which are used by many businesses, especially in manufacturing.
